How do natural factors contribute to changes in Earth’s temperature?
Author
Earth & Space Science
15 Anchor Phenomenon
15.1 🌍 Earth’s Temperature Is Rising
Earth’s temperature is rising, reversing the cooling trend that occurred over the past 2,000 years, putting millions of people in harm’s way, yet the public is not convinced of the risks.
15.1.1 Essential Questions:
How do natural factors contribute to changes in Earth’s temperature?
What are 99.9% of climate scientists seeing in historical climate data that makes them so sure humans are the cause of climate change today?
Why does it matter?
16 The Reality of Climate Change
16.1 Global Temperature Trends
Let’s examine how Earth’s temperature has changed over time using real data.
consensusData = [ {group:"Climate Scientists",agree:99.9,disagree:0.1}, {group:"General Public (US)",agree:57,disagree:43}]
99.9%
of climate scientists agree humans are causing climate change
57%
of the US public believes humans are the primary cause
17.1.1 🤔 Driving Question
Why is there such a large gap between scientific consensus and public perception? What evidence convinces scientists that humans are causing climate change?
18 The 2,000-Year Cooling Trend
18.1 Interactive: Long-Term Temperature Record
Before recent warming, Earth had been gradually cooling for about 2,000 years.
Code
longTermData = [ {year:0,temp:0.1}, {year:200,temp:0.05}, {year:400,temp:-0.1}, {year:600,temp:-0.15}, {year:800,temp:-0.05}, {year:1000,temp:0.05}, {year:1200,temp:-0.1}, {year:1400,temp:-0.3}, {year:1600,temp:-0.4}, {year:1700,temp:-0.35}, {year:1800,temp:-0.3}, {year:1850,temp:-0.25}, {year:1900,temp:-0.2}, {year:1950,temp:-0.05}, {year:1980,temp:0.15}, {year:2000,temp:0.4}, {year:2020,temp:1.0}]Plot.plot({title:"2,000 Years of Global Temperature Change",subtitle:"Temperature anomaly relative to 1961-1990 average",width:700,height:400,x: {label:"Year (CE)",domain: [0,2025]},y: {label:"Temperature Anomaly (°C)",domain: [-0.6,1.2]},marks: [ Plot.ruleY([0], {stroke:"#999",strokeDasharray:"4,4"}), Plot.areaY(longTermData.filter(d => d.year<=1850), {x:"year",y:"temp",fill:"#3498db",fillOpacity:0.3}), Plot.areaY(longTermData.filter(d => d.year>=1850), {x:"year",y:"temp",fill:"#e74c3c",fillOpacity:0.3}), Plot.line(longTermData, {x:"year",y:"temp",stroke:"#2c3e50",strokeWidth:2}), Plot.text([{x:900,y:-0.45,text:"Natural Cooling Trend"}], {x:"x",y:"y",text:"text",fill:"#3498db",fontSize:12}), Plot.text([{x:1950,y:0.7,text:"Industrial Era Warming"}], {x:"x",y:"y",text:"text",fill:"#e74c3c",fontSize:12}) ]})
18.1.1 💡 Key Ideas from the Unit Opening
Over the past 2,000 years, Earth had been cooling, until about 200 years ago
Millions of people have been displaced because of weather-related incidents
The scientific consensus is that humans are causing climate change and that it is a big deal
The public is less certain that humans are causing climate change
19 Student Questions
Based on what you’ve observed, what questions do you have?
19.0.1 Questions to Investigate in This Unit:
Why was Earth’s temperature cooling before but is rising now?
Why are people being displaced by climate factors?
Why are scientists sure that humans are causing climate change?
Has the climate ever changed before, and if so, how did it impact populations?
How will climate change affect people now and in the future?
Why are scientists so sure that climate change is a big deal?
20 Performance Task Preview
20.1 📋 Your Mission
Throughout this unit, you will analyze and interpret data related to changes in climate in the past in order to:
Understand how we are so confident humans are the cause of current climate change
Communicate this information to educate others in your community about the risks
Predict how climate factors will be affected in the future
Explain how populations will be impacted
By the end of this unit, you will create a communication piece for someone in your community that explains: - Why scientists are certain humans are causing climate change - How climate factors will be affected - How populations will be impacted
21 Initial Ideas Activity
21.1 What natural factors might cause climate change?
Brainstorm: Natural Climate Factors
Before we investigate, record your initial ideas about what natural factors could have caused changes in climate in the past:
Changes in the Sun's energy output
Volcanic eruptions
Changes in Earth's orbit
Ocean current changes
What else?
21.2 📝 Unit Opening Quiz
Question 1: Based on the temperature data, approximately how much has global temperature increased since 1880? - A) 0.5°C - B) 1.0°C - C) 1.5°C - D) 2.0°C
Question 2: What percentage of climate scientists agree that humans are causing climate change? - A) About 57% - B) About 75% - C) About 90% - D) About 99.9%
Question 3: Before approximately 200 years ago, Earth’s temperature had been: - A) Rapidly warming - B) Staying constant - C) Gradually cooling - D) Fluctuating wildly
Question 4: Why is the gap between scientific consensus and public perception important to address? - A) It doesn’t matter what the public thinks - B) Scientists might be wrong - C) Public support is needed for climate action - D) The public knows more than scientists
Question 5: What is the anchor phenomenon for this unit? - A) Ice ages occur every 100,000 years - B) The Sun’s output varies over time - C) Earth’s temperature is rising, reversing a 2,000-year cooling trend - D) Volcanoes cause climate change
---title: "Unit 4: Climate Change - Unit Opening"subtitle: "How do natural factors contribute to changes in Earth's temperature?"author: "Earth & Space Science"format: html: toc: true toc-depth: 3 number-sections: true theme: cosmo code-fold: true self-contained: trueexecute: echo: true warning: false---```{=html}<style>@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Space+Grotesk:wght@700&family=Inter:wght@400;600;800&display=swap');.anchor-box { background: linear-gradient(135deg, #667eea 0%, #764ba2 100%); color: white; padding: 30px; border-radius: 15px; margin: 25px 0; box-shadow: 0 10px 30px rgba(102, 126, 234, 0.4); animation: slideIn 0.8s ease-out;}.question-box { background: linear-gradient(to right, #ffeaa7, #fdcb6e); padding: 20px; margin: 20px 0; border-radius: 12px; border-left: 6px solid #e17055; box-shadow: 0 4px 15px rgba(225, 112, 85, 0.3);}.check-understanding { background: linear-gradient(to right, #667eea, #764ba2); color: white; padding: 20px; margin: 20px 0; border-radius: 12px; border-left: 6px solid #fff; animation: pulse 2s infinite;}@keyframes pulse { 0%, 100% { box-shadow: 0 0 20px rgba(102, 126, 234, 0.5); } 50% { box-shadow: 0 0 30px rgba(102, 126, 234, 0.8); }}@keyframes slideIn { from { opacity: 0; transform: translateY(-20px); } to { opacity: 1; transform: translateY(0); }}.key-idea { background: linear-gradient(135deg, #ffecd2 0%, #fcb69f 100%); padding: 20px; margin: 20px 0; border-radius: 12px; border-left: 8px solid #ff6b6b; font-size: 1.1em;}.quiz-section { background: linear-gradient(135deg, #a8edea 0%, #fed6e3 100%); padding: 25px; margin: 25px 0; border-radius: 15px; border: 4px dashed #ff6b6b;}h1 { font-family: 'Space Grotesk', sans-serif !important; font-weight: 800 !important; font-size: 2.8em !important; margin-top: 40px !important;}h2 { font-family: 'Space Grotesk', sans-serif !important; font-weight: 700 !important; color: #667eea !important;}.big-question { font-family: 'Space Grotesk', sans-serif; font-size: 2.5em; font-weight: 800; background: linear-gradient(135deg, #667eea 0%, #764ba2 100%); -webkit-background-clip: text; -webkit-text-fill-color: transparent; margin: 30px 0 20px 0; text-align: center; animation: slideIn 0.8s ease-out;}</style>```# Anchor Phenomenon::: {.anchor-box}## 🌍 Earth's Temperature Is Rising**Earth's temperature is rising, reversing the cooling trend that occurred over the past 2,000 years, putting millions of people in harm's way, yet the public is not convinced of the risks.**### Essential Questions:- How do natural factors contribute to changes in Earth's temperature?- What are 99.9% of climate scientists seeing in historical climate data that makes them so sure humans are the cause of climate change today?- Why does it matter?:::# The Reality of Climate Change## Global Temperature TrendsLet's examine how Earth's temperature has changed over time using real data.```{ojs}//| echo: false// Interactive Global Temperature Anomaly VisualizationPlot = require("@observablehq/plot")// Temperature anomaly data (NASA GISTEMP simplified)tempData = [ {year: 1880, anomaly: -0.16}, {year: 1890, anomaly: -0.33}, {year: 1900, anomaly: -0.08}, {year: 1910, anomaly: -0.42}, {year: 1920, anomaly: -0.25}, {year: 1930, anomaly: -0.14}, {year: 1940, anomaly: 0.12}, {year: 1950, anomaly: -0.17}, {year: 1960, anomaly: -0.01}, {year: 1970, anomaly: -0.01}, {year: 1980, anomaly: 0.26}, {year: 1990, anomaly: 0.45}, {year: 2000, anomaly: 0.42}, {year: 2010, anomaly: 0.72}, {year: 2020, anomaly: 1.02}, {year: 2024, anomaly: 1.29}]``````{ojs}//| echo: falseviewof yearRange = Inputs.range([1880, 2024], { step: 10, value: 2024, label: "Explore data up to year:"})``````{ojs}//| echo: falsefilteredData = tempData.filter(d => d.year <= yearRange)Plot.plot({ title: "Global Temperature Anomaly (°C relative to 1951-1980 average)", width: 700, height: 400, y: {label: "Temperature Anomaly (°C)", domain: [-0.6, 1.5]}, x: {label: "Year"}, marks: [ Plot.ruleY([0], {stroke: "#ccc", strokeDasharray: "4,4"}), Plot.line(filteredData, {x: "year", y: "anomaly", stroke: "steelblue", strokeWidth: 2}), Plot.dot(filteredData, {x: "year", y: "anomaly", fill: d => d.anomaly > 0 ? "red" : "blue", r: 5}), Plot.text(filteredData.slice(-1), {x: "year", y: "anomaly", text: d => `${d.anomaly}°C`, dy: -15, fontSize: 14, fontWeight: "bold"}) ]})```::: {.check-understanding}### ✅ Check Your Understanding1. What pattern do you observe in the temperature data?2. Around what year did temperatures begin consistently rising above the baseline?3. How much warmer is Earth today compared to the 1880s?:::## NASA Climate Vital Signs WidgetExplore real-time climate data from NASA:```{=html}<div style="display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; gap: 20px; justify-content: center; margin: 20px 0;"> <iframe src="https://climate.nasa.gov/system/internal_resources/details/original/1318_co2-mm-gl-widget.html" height="316" width="300" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 10px; box-shadow: 0 4px 6px rgba(0,0,0,0.1);"></iframe> <iframe src="https://climate.nasa.gov/system/internal_resources/details/original/2264_SeaLevel-widget.html" height="316" width="300" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 10px; box-shadow: 0 4px 6px rgba(0,0,0,0.1);"></iframe></div>```## Climate Displacement DataMillions of people have already been displaced due to climate-related events.```{ojs}//| echo: falsedisplacementData = [ {year: 2018, displaced: 17.2, type: "Weather-related"}, {year: 2019, displaced: 24.9, type: "Weather-related"}, {year: 2020, displaced: 30.0, type: "Weather-related"}, {year: 2021, displaced: 23.7, type: "Weather-related"}, {year: 2022, displaced: 32.6, type: "Weather-related"}, {year: 2023, displaced: 26.4, type: "Weather-related"}]Plot.plot({ title: "People Displaced by Weather-Related Disasters (Millions)", width: 600, height: 350, x: {label: "Year", tickFormat: d => d.toString()}, y: {label: "People Displaced (Millions)", domain: [0, 40]}, marks: [ Plot.barY(displacementData, {x: "year", y: "displaced", fill: "#e74c3c"}), Plot.text(displacementData, {x: "year", y: "displaced", text: d => d.displaced + "M", dy: -10, fontSize: 11}) ]})```# Scientific Consensus## What Do Scientists Say?```{ojs}//| echo: falseconsensusData = [ {group: "Climate Scientists", agree: 99.9, disagree: 0.1}, {group: "General Public (US)", agree: 57, disagree: 43}]``````{=html}<div style="display: flex; justify-content: center; gap: 40px; flex-wrap: wrap; margin: 30px 0;"> <div style="text-align: center; padding: 30px; background: #27ae60; color: white; border-radius: 15px; width: 200px;"> <div style="font-size: 48px; font-weight: bold;">99.9%</div> <div style="font-size: 14px; margin-top: 10px;">of climate scientists agree humans are causing climate change</div> </div> <div style="text-align: center; padding: 30px; background: #e74c3c; color: white; border-radius: 15px; width: 200px;"> <div style="font-size: 48px; font-weight: bold;">57%</div> <div style="font-size: 14px; margin-top: 10px;">of the US public believes humans are the primary cause</div> </div></div>```::: {.question-box}### 🤔 Driving QuestionWhy is there such a large gap between scientific consensus and public perception? What evidence convinces scientists that humans are causing climate change?:::# The 2,000-Year Cooling Trend## Interactive: Long-Term Temperature RecordBefore recent warming, Earth had been gradually cooling for about 2,000 years.```{ojs}//| echo: false// Simplified 2000-year temperature reconstructionlongTermData = [ {year: 0, temp: 0.1}, {year: 200, temp: 0.05}, {year: 400, temp: -0.1}, {year: 600, temp: -0.15}, {year: 800, temp: -0.05}, {year: 1000, temp: 0.05}, {year: 1200, temp: -0.1}, {year: 1400, temp: -0.3}, {year: 1600, temp: -0.4}, {year: 1700, temp: -0.35}, {year: 1800, temp: -0.3}, {year: 1850, temp: -0.25}, {year: 1900, temp: -0.2}, {year: 1950, temp: -0.05}, {year: 1980, temp: 0.15}, {year: 2000, temp: 0.4}, {year: 2020, temp: 1.0}]Plot.plot({ title: "2,000 Years of Global Temperature Change", subtitle: "Temperature anomaly relative to 1961-1990 average", width: 700, height: 400, x: {label: "Year (CE)", domain: [0, 2025]}, y: {label: "Temperature Anomaly (°C)", domain: [-0.6, 1.2]}, marks: [ Plot.ruleY([0], {stroke: "#999", strokeDasharray: "4,4"}), Plot.areaY(longTermData.filter(d => d.year <= 1850), {x: "year", y: "temp", fill: "#3498db", fillOpacity: 0.3}), Plot.areaY(longTermData.filter(d => d.year >= 1850), {x: "year", y: "temp", fill: "#e74c3c", fillOpacity: 0.3}), Plot.line(longTermData, {x: "year", y: "temp", stroke: "#2c3e50", strokeWidth: 2}), Plot.text([{x: 900, y: -0.45, text: "Natural Cooling Trend"}], {x: "x", y: "y", text: "text", fill: "#3498db", fontSize: 12}), Plot.text([{x: 1950, y: 0.7, text: "Industrial Era Warming"}], {x: "x", y: "y", text: "text", fill: "#e74c3c", fontSize: 12}) ]})```::: {.key-idea}### 💡 Key Ideas from the Unit Opening- Over the past 2,000 years, Earth had been cooling, until about 200 years ago- Millions of people have been displaced because of weather-related incidents- The scientific consensus is that humans are causing climate change and that it is a big deal- The public is less certain that humans are causing climate change:::# Student QuestionsBased on what you've observed, what questions do you have?::: {.question-box}### Questions to Investigate in This Unit:1. Why was Earth's temperature cooling before but is rising now?2. Why are people being displaced by climate factors?3. Why are scientists sure that humans are causing climate change?4. Has the climate ever changed before, and if so, how did it impact populations?5. How will climate change affect people now and in the future?6. Why are scientists so sure that climate change is a big deal?:::# Performance Task Preview::: {.anchor-box}## 📋 Your MissionThroughout this unit, you will analyze and interpret data related to changes in climate in the past in order to:1. **Understand** how we are so confident humans are the cause of current climate change2. **Communicate** this information to educate others in your community about the risks3. **Predict** how climate factors will be affected in the future4. **Explain** how populations will be impactedBy the end of this unit, you will create a communication piece for someone in your community that explains:- Why scientists are certain humans are causing climate change- How climate factors will be affected- How populations will be impacted:::# Initial Ideas Activity## What natural factors might cause climate change?```{=html}<div style="background: #f5f5f5; padding: 20px; border-radius: 10px; margin: 20px 0;"> <h4>Brainstorm: Natural Climate Factors</h4> <p>Before we investigate, record your initial ideas about what natural factors could have caused changes in climate in the past:</p> <ul> <li>Changes in the Sun's energy output</li> <li>Volcanic eruptions</li> <li>Changes in Earth's orbit</li> <li>Ocean current changes</li> <li>What else?</li> </ul></div>```---::: {.quiz-section}## 📝 Unit Opening Quiz**Question 1:** Based on the temperature data, approximately how much has global temperature increased since 1880?- A) 0.5°C- B) 1.0°C- C) 1.5°C- D) 2.0°C**Question 2:** What percentage of climate scientists agree that humans are causing climate change?- A) About 57%- B) About 75%- C) About 90%- D) About 99.9%**Question 3:** Before approximately 200 years ago, Earth's temperature had been:- A) Rapidly warming- B) Staying constant- C) Gradually cooling- D) Fluctuating wildly**Question 4:** Why is the gap between scientific consensus and public perception important to address?- A) It doesn't matter what the public thinks- B) Scientists might be wrong- C) Public support is needed for climate action- D) The public knows more than scientists**Question 5:** What is the anchor phenomenon for this unit?- A) Ice ages occur every 100,000 years- B) The Sun's output varies over time- C) Earth's temperature is rising, reversing a 2,000-year cooling trend- D) Volcanoes cause climate change*Answers: 1-C, 2-D, 3-C, 4-C, 5-C*:::